Snapshot

In the run-up to the 2023 election, many establishment politicians dismissed former Anambra State governor Peter Obi's candidacy as little more than a social-media phenomenon. The results told a different story.

Obi recorded 6.1 million votes and won 12 states despite credible reports of voter suppression in his strongholds, a performance reminiscent of Muhammadu Buhari's early runs under the CPC banner. He achieved this on the ticket of a little-known party with no elected officials and even defeated Bola Tinubu in Lagos, long regarded as the president's political base and the epicenter of his political machinery.

The "Obi wave" swept across much of the South, carrying states such as Enugu, Ebonyi, Anambra, Edo, Abia, Delta, Imo and Cross River. In the North, however, he managed victories only in Plateau, Nasarawa and the Federal Capital Territory. Post-election analysis made one point clear: Obi needed deeper support among northern voters if he hoped to transform an impressive debut into a winning national coalition.

He responded with a sustained outreach campaign that went beyond symbolic appearances. Through donations for humanitarian projects, the construction of small community facilities, and targeted grassroots development programs, he sought to connect directly with ordinary Northerners and soften perceptions of regional bias. He also paid courtesy and condolence visits to influential figures, including respected clerics and prominent politicians like Nasir El-Rufai and Isa Ali Pantami, and the family of the late Muhammadu Buhari following the former president's passing. These gestures improved his standing and even earned him the traditional title of Sarkin Maskan Pantami in Gombe State, a recognition that carries cultural significance and signals a degree of local acceptance.

Obi's rhetoric now reflects this broader focus. His call to move Nigeria "from consumption to production" often highlights the North as the nation's greatest asset because of its vast agricultural potential and its largely untapped renewable energy resources. He regularly points to the region's fertile land and young workforce as pillars for a future economy driven by commercial agriculture and light manufacturing. He has also promised to serve only one term if elected, a pledge aimed at respecting the informal rotation of power between North and South. Critics question whether he would keep such a promise, noting that no constitutional provision requires it, while supporters see a calculated but positive step toward national balance and consensus-building.

Peter Obi's charm offensive shows a pragmatic understanding of politics, but he could strengthen it by attending major cultural events such as the Kano Durbar, engaging politically influential northerners and traditional rulers, and speaking out on issues affecting his own region. Growing discontent with the current administration also works in his favor, as many voters are looking for a credible alternative to the status quo.

As the 2027 race approaches, analysts believe Obi's cross-regional outreach, combined with his strategic messaging and the enthusiasm of a loyal base, could again make him a formidable contender with the potential to reshape Nigeria's political landscape.